Duarte Weather

000
FXUS66 KLOX 241800
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1000 AM PST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...24/807 AM.

High pressure over the area will produce mostly clear skies and
warmer weather for the week. Afternoon high temperatures will get
into the 80s in many places by Thursday. Conditions will be dry
and locally breezy. There is a slight chance of showers returning by
next Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...24/930 AM.

Some lingering low level moisture remains this morning generating
some patchy low clouds and fog in some of the valleys. Most of
that is clearing off now leading to a sunny day area-wide.
Gradients are trending strongly offshore (east/west) so between
that and the building ridge aloft we`re looking at a significant
warm up today and lasting through the week. Record highs are
possible later in the week as many areas are expected to climb
into the mid 80s. The main forecast question is whether Santa Ana
winds will be strong enough for advisories. If so they will be
mostly of the low end variety with minimal impacts.

***From Previous Discussion***

About 3 to 4 MB of offshore flow from both the north and east
develop tonight and this will set up a Santa Ana wind event for
Tuesday morning. It will be a breezy start to the day with low end
advisory level wind gusts along the VTA/LA county border as well
as the southern half of the VTA coast. The big news will be the
max temps which will jump another 5 to 10 degrees every except
again in the Antelope Vly where cooler inland air will thwart any
warming. The coasts and vlys will see max temps ranging from the
mid 70s to the lower 80s.

Not much change on Wednesday. There is a little more of an east
push and a little less of one from the north. This might allow for
some stronger gusts below due east oriented canyons (like the one
that affects Avalon harbor). Again there will likely be a need
for some low end advisories along the VTA/LA county border as
well as the southern half of the VTA coast. Max temps will change
little from Tuesday and the csts/vlys will remain 8 to 10 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/314 AM.

Both the EC and the GFS agree that the ridge will continue over
the state both Thu and Fri. Offshore flow will continue as well,
although it will be weaker than Wednesday and its unlikely that
there will be a need for advisories. The only threat to the clear
skies will be some occasional high level clouds. The ridge will
peak in strength on Thursday and it will be the warmest day of the
next 7 with a preponderance of the max temps across the coasts and
vlys in the 80s. MAx temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The ridge breaks down on Saturday. The offshore flow will either
weaker considerably or even switch to onshore. Mid and high level
clouds will return as well. All of the above will combine to lower
temps about 10 degrees and almost all locations will be back to
normal temps or even a degree or two blo normal.

Although not in the best of agreement both the EC and GFS move
some sort of trof over the state on Sunday. Both deterministic
runs and most of the ensembles bring some rain to the area. There
is a fairly large spread in the timing of the precipitation which
is not too surprising for a day 7 forecast. Right now mostly
cloudy with a chc of rain seems the way to go. It is rather likely
that it will be a much cooler day with max temps running 5 to 10
degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

At 1633Z, there was a marine layer depth of 1900 feet, but not
enough moisture for marine clouds. The inversion top was at 3000
ft with a temperature of 12C.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. VFR
conditions are expected through the period. Offshore flow will
strengthen through 18z Tue.

KLAX...High confidence in the 18z TAF. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF. VFR conditions are
expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected until
possibly the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...24/939 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate-to-high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will likely
continue through Monday night. There is a 50 percent chance of
SCA level gusts at times around Point Conception Tuesday. Winds
should diminish and seas should subside below SCA levels Wednesday
and Thursday. There is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA level
conditions developing on Friday or Friday night.

For the nearshore waters north of Point Sal, moderate-to-high
confidence in the current forecast. There is a 60 percent chance
of SCA level winds at times this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels through
Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of SCA level conditions
developing on Friday or Friday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas should remain
below SCA levels through tonight, except for a 30 percent chance
of SCA level across the Santa Barbara Channel this evening. There
is a 50 percent chance of SCA level NE wind gusts at times
nearshore from Point Mugu to Santa Monica late tonight and Tuesday
morning, reducing to 30 percent Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Wednesday
night through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...24/939 AM.

A large northwest swell has moved into the coastal waters with
the potential to bring surf up to or just over 10 feet, so a high
surf advisory remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

Locally gusty northeast winds are likely through Friday, bringing
dry conditions and temperatures well above seasonal normals.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Sweet/Hall
MARINE...Sweet/Hall
BEACHES...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion