August 22, 2018
72.3 °F
Dew Pt.
65.0 °F
1014.3 hPa 
  rising slowly
0.0 mph 
0.00 in 
  0.00 in/hr
UV index
Solar rad.
100 W/m²

Tonight: Patchy fog.  Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Patchy Fog

Wednesday: Patchy fog before 11am.  Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Patchy Fog
then Sunny
Lo 65 °F Hi 97 °F
FXUS66 KLOX 220651

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1151 PM PDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...21/922 PM.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals and a persistent
marine layer and onshore flow pattern will remain in place into
the weekend. Temperatures will cool to below normal next week.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...21/829 PM.

Onshore flow and a deep marine layer remain in place this evening
beneath southwest flow aloft between a trough aloft entering the
northern Great Basin and a upper-level ridge centered over north
Texas. A near persistent temperatures pattern will continue with
night through morning low clouds and fog remaining a staple of the
forecast. A few tweaks were made temperatures for Wednesday in the
latest update.

***From Previous Discussion***

The latest satellite shows an upper-level trough of low pressure
near the California-Oregon-Nevada border intersection, while an
upper-level ridge of high pressure is centered over north Texas.
Stronger onshore flow and a deep marine layer due to the trough`s
influence to the north has allowed marine layer induced lower
clouds and fog to hug the beaches of Santa Barbara and San Luis
Obispo Counties. The marine layer will likely be staple of the
forecast the next couple of days.

Very minimal changes are expected over the next several days as
500 mb heights and 1000-500 mb thickness values do not change by
much throughout the remainder of the work week. A near persistence
forecast should be expected the next several days as the marine
layer and moderate onshore flow will remain in place in southwest
flow aloft. Some thinning of the marine layer will take place over
the coming days, probably thinning by about 500 feet each day as
the trough to the north pulls away.

Very few changes were made to the short term, really only to tweak
temperatures at a few locations and reduce marine layer coverage
through Friday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...21/209 PM.

High pressure will expand westward into the weekend but not as
much as thought previously. Higher 500 mb heights lean toward
onshore flow being weaker through Saturday, likely making
it the warmest day of the week. Model solutions are starting to
fall in-line with the idea of troughing over the West Coast early
next week. Both GFS and ECMWF solutions agree with the idea, but
the exact and more finer details are inconsistent. A cooling trend
was introduced for early next week with a continued marine
influence. Stronger onshore flow should be expected between
Sunday and next Tuesday, along with a deeper marine layer.



At 0545Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1600 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2500 feet with a temperature of 24
degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in non desert TAFs. Flight Cat transitions
could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR
conds at terminals with only MVFR conds fcst.

Good confidence in desert TAFS.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
IFR cigs 10Z-15Z. Good confidence that any east wind component
will be under 7 kt. VFR transition should occur within 60 min of

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of
IFR cigs 10Z-15Z. VFR transition may be as late as 18Z


.MARINE...21/818 PM.

For the Outer Waters, There will be a 10-20% chance for SCA level
gusts each late afternoon and evening for areas between Point
Conception to NW of San Nicolas Island. There will be a 50% chance
of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) Wednesday evening between Point
Conception to NW of San Nicolas Island. More widespread SCA
conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday.

For the Inner Waters, conditions are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through tonight, but with a 30 percent
chance of SCA winds Thursday, and increasing chances Friday
through the weekend.

Patchy fog, possibly dense at times, will continue to form during
the late night and morning hours, especially north of Point
Conception through late in the week.





Gusty Sundowner winds and elevated fire weather conditions are
possible for early next week.




NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion