Duarte Weather

452
FXUS66 KLOX 132100
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/108 PM.

A warming trend early this week will give way to dangerous heat
by mid week. A few showers and thunderstorms could impact interior
areas during the afternoon hours through Tuesday. Gusty northwest
to north winds will impact southern Santa Barbara County to the
Interstate 5 Corridor during the afternoon through overnight hours
Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Cooler weather is expected
Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...13/159 PM.

Another warm and muggy day across the area with monsoon moisture
continuing to move into the area from the southeast. So far as of
1pm thunderstorms have not developed as cloud cover has likely
interfered with the convective processes and kept temperatures
down by at least 20% of their full potential. Satellite imagery
is showing some clearing to the south so there is still at least a
slight chance of late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, the
best chances still being in the mountains.

The rest of the forecast remains in tact. Monsoon moisture is
expected to decrease Tuesday leading to much more sunshine which
will allow temperatures to reach to near full potential, meaning
temps in the mid 90s to 105 in the valleys and mid to upper 80s in
the intermediate areas between the coast and valleys (eg.
Downtown LA), and mid to upper 70s at the coast. An Extreme Heat
Warning will begin Tuesday morning and continue through Thursday
evening for most areas away from the immediate coast.

Temperatures with this heat wave will peak on Wednesday as
gradients to the east turn lightly offshore, delaying the arrival
of sea breeze. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be 3-6 degrees
warmer than Tuesday. Can`t stress enough the importance of
minimizing outdoor activities, particularly between 10am and 7pm
when temperatures will be at their highest.

One additional significant weather factor will be the expected
development of strong and hot Sundowners across the Santa Ynez
Range and down into the foothills and coastal areas of the Santa
Barbara County south coast. Winds will start up Tuesday evening
but peak Wednesday evening gusting to 35-50 mph with local gusts
up to 60 mph possible in the foothills and mountains. Add to that
the very hot airmass in place and downsloping effects,
temperatures could easily reach the 90s all the way to the coast
and possibly around 100-102 in the foothills. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for all of the Santa Barbara South Coast and
Mountains Wednesday into Thursday morning.

2-4 degrees of cooling is expected Thursday but highs will still
be 6-12 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/154 PM.

Very gradual lowering of midlevel heights later this week into
the weekend, combined with the eventual influx of deep moisture
from distant, low-latitude East Pacific storms bringing increasing
cloudiness, along with reinforcing onshore flow, will all
contribute to temperatures slowly cooling to near-normal readings
by next weekend. Hot conditions will still be present on Thursday
when heat headlines remain in effect. While a few diurnally
enhanced showers cannot be ruled out over the high terrain late
this week and into the weekend owing to the increasing moisture,
confidence in the development of this activity is too minimal for
mention in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, the onshore flow
will bring an increase in night through morning patchy low clouds
and fog across coastal areas by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1717Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 700 ft. The top of
the inversion was at 2100 ft with a max temperature of 25 C.

Low to Moderate confidence in the TAFs. Patchy low clouds during
the night through morning resulting in uncertainty in CIGs for
coastal and coastal valley sites. There is a 20-30% chance for
thunderstorms at KPMD/KWJF from 13/18Z through 14/00Z. These
storms would be capable of producing erratic winds / turbulence
and heavy rainfall.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
may be off +/- 2 hours. Timing of IFR CIGs near 006 could be off
+/- 2 hours, and CIGs may be intermittent when forecasted. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected

&&

.MARINE...13/731 AM.

NW winds are expected to strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Thursday night
across the Outer Waters. There is also 20% chance of Gales later
Wednesday into Thursday. Seas are forecast to build over 10 feet
in conjunction with these winds. The elevated winds and seas will
extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters
along the Central coast at times through this period. While a few
showers may drift across the local waters through early parts of
this week, thunderstorms are unlikely.

&&

.BEACHES...13/1017 AM.

Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are
expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles,
Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced
southerly swell continues. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect through Wednesday evening for these areas. Minor coastal
flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally
high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. Later this week and into the
weekend, distant storms over the East Pacific waters well south of
the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in
even more significant beach hazards by the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones
      38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones
      87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Thursday morning for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Cohen
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...Cohen/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion