Duarte Weather

000
FXUS66 KLOX 290606
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1106 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...28/616 PM.

A weak cold front will move through the area on Sunday accompanied
with gusty onshore winds and a chance of showers north of Point
Conception and in the mountains. High pressure will start building
on Monday with dry and above normal temperatures expected for the
rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/810 PM.

***UPDATE***

Forecast is in good shape with regard to the two short term
issues. A slight chc or chc or rain across SLO/Nrn SBA counties
as well as the LA/VTA mtns. The 00Z NAM looks even drier. The
strong winds are still on track to affect portions of the area
from late tomorrow afternoon through Monday.

No forecast update is needed.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak upper level trough developing off the coast of California
will bring increasing high clouds to the region today, while
maintaining cool temperatures. Scattered light showers have
developed today across Monterey county, with a slight chance of
showers developing north of Morro Bay later this afternoon.
The weak upper trough will push through the region tonight
through Sunday. There will be 20-50 percent pops with this weak
system, mainly north of Point Conception as well as interior areas
of LA/Ventura/SBA counties. The best chance of precipitation for
most of these areas is expected to be Sunday afternoon. Any rain
that does fall with this system is expected to be light, with
totals generally less than a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will
likely remain above 5000 feet and there will not be any snow
issues over the major mountain passes.

The upper trough passage will also usher in gusty west to
northwest winds across portions of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. The strongest winds will be focused
across southern SBA county, the I-5 corridor in the LA county
mountains, and the Antelope Valley, where gusts between 30 and
45 mph will be common. Wind advisories may be needed for portions
of these areas late Sunday.

Dry northwest flow aloft sets up on Monday, with building heights
across the district. This in combination with weak offshore flow
to the north will bring a warming trend on Monday, with warmest
areas peaking into the mid 70s. Northerly offshore flow increases
Monday night into Tuesday morning (with LAX-Bakersfield gradient
expected to peak around -6 mb), which will bring additional
warming to most areas on Tuesday. Warmest coastal/valley areas
could even see temperatures topping 80 degrees by Tuesday. The
north-south offshore pressure gradients combined with some upper
level wind support will enhance gusty northerly winds across
southern SBA county and I-5 corridor Monday night into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/327 AM.

Both the EC and GFS agree that there will be dry NW flow over the
area Tue and Wed and then weak ridging on Thu and Fri. It will be
dry all four days.

There will be offshore flow from both the east and north on
Tuesday and this will be the warmest day for the coasts and vlys.
The warmest days for the interior will be Thu and Fri under the
ridge.

All four days will have warmer than normal max temps and 70s will
be the order of the day, but cannot rule out a few 80 degree
readings in the warmest locations.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0606Z.

At 0545Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion.

Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc of MVFR cigs at any
cst or vly site 10Z-16Z. A 20-30 percent chc of -SHRA at sites
north of Pt Conception after 15Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc BKN025 10Z-
16Z. A 40 percent chc of an 7 kt east wind component 13Z-17Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc BKN025 10Z-
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/846 PM.

Outer waters...Good confidence in forecast.

Inner waters north of Pt. Sal...Good confidence in forecast. There
will be local Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level gusts this evening.

Inner waters south of Pt Conception...Good confidence in forecast. There
will be local SCA level gusts this evening across the western
third of the SBA channel.

There will be an extended period of hazardous short period seas under
9 seconds through at least Tue across most of the waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Rorke
SYNOPSIS...TF

weather.gov/losangeles

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion